Abahomba n’abungukira mu ntambara ya Iran

Kuva ku izamuka rikabije ry’ibiciro by’ibitoro byo gushyushya amazu mu gace ka Yorkshire, kugera ku gufunga amashuri muri Pakistan kubera amafaranga y’ishuri yabaye menshi, ndetse n’izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ibikomoka kuri peteroli muri Ghana, biragaragara ko ingaruka z’ubukungu zituruka ku ntambara yo mu burasirazuba bwo hagati zatangiye kumvikana ku isi hose.

Biragaragara ko ingaruka z’ibihano bya Iran zigamije guhungabanya ubukungu zishobora kumara igihe kirekire, kandi ntizizagera ku bihugu byose kimwe. Mu gihe hari ibihugu byinshi biri guhura n’ingaruka mbi, hari n’ibindi biri kubyungukiramo.

Abari kungukira muri iyu ntambara: Norvège, Canada n’Uburusiya

Nubwo isi iri kugerageza gushaka izindi mbaraga zisubira, peteroli na gaz biracyafite uruhare runini mu bukungu bw’isi. Ibihugu bifite umutungo mwinshi w’ibikomoka kuri peteroli bikunze kubyungukiramo cyane, ari na yo mpamvu peteroli yitwa “zahabu y’umukara”.

Iyo ibiciro byiyongereye, abacuruza n’ababyaza umusaruro peteroli barunguka cyane, mu gihe abaguzi bahura n’ibibazo. Ariko ibi si izamuka risanzwe.

Akarere k’uburasirazuba bwo hagati ni ko gasanzwe gatanga peteroli nyinshi ku isi, aho umuhora wa Hormuz ari ingenzi cyane. Iyo habayeho kuwufunga cyangwa ibitero ku bikorwa remezo bya peteroli, bituma ibiciro bizamuka cyane ku isi.

Mu gihe ibihugu byinshi biri gushaka ahandi byakura peteroli, Norvège na Canada biri mu bihita bibyungukiramo. Nyuma y’intambara Uburusiya bwagabye kuri Ukraine mu 2022, ibihugu byinshi byagerageje kugabanya kwishingikiriza kuri gaz y’Uburusiya, bituma Norvège yongera umusaruro wa yo.

Ku ruhande rwa Canada, abayobozi bavuga ko igihugu cya bo gifite umutekano n’ubushobozi bwo gutanga ingufu zizewe, nubwo hari imbogamizi mu kongera umusaruro vuba.

Ariko igihugu gishobora kungukira kurusha ibindi ni Uburusiya. Nyuma y’uko Amerika yorohereje ingamba zigamije kugabanya ibura rya peteroli ku isi, Uburusiya bwongereye cyane ubucuruzi bwa bwo, cyane cyane mu Buhinde. Hari amakuru yerekana ko bushobora kwinjiza miliyari nyinshi z’amadolari mu gihe gito kiri imbere.

Hari n’ibindi bihugu bishobora kungukira kuri ibi, nk’ibigurisha amakara (coal) nka Indonesia, kuko n’ibiciro bya yo biri kuzamuka.

Abari guhomba: Amerika, Ubwongereza n’Uburayi

Nubwo Perezida w’Amerika, Donald Trump, avuga ko izamuka ry’ibiciro bya peteroli rituma igihugu cye cyinjiza amafaranga menshi, si ko bimeze kuri bose.

Nubwo amasosiyete acukura peteroli muri Amerika ashobora kunguka, hari impamvu nyinshi zituma ubukungu bw’igihugu butabifata nk’inyungu rusange. Urugero ni uko ayo masosiyete afite ibikorwa byinshi mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati bishobora guhungabana kubera intambara.

Ikindi kandi, nyuma y’igihe kirekire ibiciro bya peteroli biri hasi, abacukura peteroli yo mu bitare (shale) ntibashobora guhita bongera umusaruro vuba.

Ikindi cy’ingenzi ni uko Abanyamerika ari bo bakoresha cyane peteroli ku isi, haba mu gutwara imodoka cyangwa gushyushya amazu, bigatuma bahura cyane n’izamuka ry’ibiciro.

Abasesenguzi bavuga ko nibiba bigeze aho igiciro cya peteroli kigera kuri 140$ ku gipimo, ubukungu bushobora kugabanuka cyane.

Mu Burayi no mu Bwongereza ho, ikibazo kirushaho gukomera kubera ko bishingikiriza cyane kuri gaz ituruka hanze. Ibi bituma izamuka ry’ibiciro rihita rigira ingaruka ku buzima bw’abaturage no ku bukungu muri rusange.

Ndetse n’ibiciro by’ibindi bintu nk’ifumbire n’ubwikorezi bishobora kuzamuka, bikiyongera ku kibazo cy’izamuka ry’ibiciro risanzwe ririho.

Nubwo ibihugu byateye imbere byatangiye kumenyera ihindagurika ry’ibiciro by’ingufu, hari inzego zigihura n’ibibazo bikomeye, cyane cyane izikoresha ingufu nyinshi.

Ingaruka ku bihugu by’Aziya

Ibihugu byinshi byo muri Aziya byibasirwa cyane n’iki kibazo kuko bishingikiriza cyane kuri peteroli iva mu burasirazuba bwo hagati, inyura mu muhora wa Hormuz.

Urugero ni Koreya y’Epfo, itumiza hafi 70% bya peteroli ya yo muri ako karere. Ibi bishobora no kugira ingaruka ku nganda zikora ibikoresho by’ikoranabuhanga nka “chips”, kuko iki gihugu kiri mu bitanga byinshi ku isi.

Ibindi bihugu nka Sri Lanka, Bangladesh na Philippines byatangiye gufata ingamba zirimo kugabanya ikoreshwa rya peteroli, kugabanya iminsi y’akazi no gufunga amashuri mu rwego rwo guhangana n’iki kibazo.

Gusa ibihugu nka China n’u Buhinde byo byagerageje kwitegura neza, bifite ububiko buhagije bwa peteroli kandi bikaba byarashatse andi masoko harimo n’Uburusiya.

Icyo isi izahura na cyo kizaterwa n’uko iyi ntambara izagenda mu minsi iri imbere. Ariko bigaragara ko ingaruka z’ubukungu zishobora gukomeza kwiyongera, zigakora ku bihugu byinshi kurushaho.

Hari impungenge ko Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Amerika zishobora kuba zitaratekereje neza ku ngaruka z’igihe kirekire z’iyi ntambara, kandi uko izagenda iramba, ni ko izakomeza guteza ibibazo byinshi ku bukungu bw’isi yose.