Nyuma y’iminsi irenga 100 ingabo za Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Amerika na Israel zigaba ibitero kuri Iran, impande zose zatangiye kwigamba ko zageze ku ntsinzi, ibintu abasesenguzi bavuga ko byerekana ko buri ruhande rwashakaga uburyo bwo kuva mu ntambara.
Nubwo abayobozi batangaje ko hari amasezerano yasinywe yo kurangiza intambara, ibitekerezo byimbitse by’imishyikirano bikomeje kugaragara nk’intangiriro y’icyiciro gikomeye kurusha icyabanjirije.
Impande zombi zagaragaje ayo masezerano nk’intsinzi imbere y’abaturage ba zo, ariko abasesenguzi bavuga ko nta ruhande rwashoboye kugera ku ntego za rwo zose, kandi ko buri ruhande rwemeye ibikomeye rwagombaga kwigomwa.
Ku ruhande rwa Iran, ayo masezerano azwi nka Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) yabaye nk’icyuho cy’agahenge, ituma ubutegetsi bushobora kwerekana ko bwahagaze bwemye, butatsinzwe, ahubwo ko bwavuye mu ntambara bugikomeye.
Intego ya Tehran kuva mu ntangiriro ntiyari ugutsinda intambara mu buryo bwa gisirikare, ahubwo kwari ukugumana ubusugire bwa Repubulika ya Kisilamu, ubutegetsi bukagumana imbaraga, kandi igihugu kikava mu ntambara kitaguyemo.
Iyo MoU yashyizweho umukono ku ruhande rwa Perezida Donald Trump na Perezida Masoud Pezeshkian, igena ibiganiro by’iminsi 60 ku bijyanye na gahunda ya nikleyeri ya Iran, ndetse igategeka guhagarika imirwano ako kanya, harimo no mu karere ka Libani, gufungura umuhora wa Hormuz no koroshya inzitizi z’ubwato bwa Iran.
Iran yemeye gutuma ubucuruzi bwo mu nyanja buca mu Muhora wa Hormuz mu mutekano, gutangaza ko itazakora intwaro za nikleyeri, ndetse no kujya mu biganiro ku bijyanye no gutunganya uranium ku rwego rwo hejuru.
Ku ruhande rw’Amerika, ingingo za yo zigaragara nk’izagutse, zirimo gukuraho inzitizi zimwe zo mu nyanja, korohereza kohereza peteroli ya Iran mu mahanga, gufungura imitungo ya yo yafashwe, no gutangira inzira yo koroshya ibihano mu rwego rwo kongera kubaka ubukungu bwa Iran.
Nubwo ibyo byahawe isura y’inyungu rusange, abasesenguzi bavuga ko byatumye Iran ibona umwanya wo kwiyerekana nk’iyatsinze, kuko ishobora kuvuga ko ubusugire bwa yo bwemewe kandi ko igiye kuganira ku bibazo bya yo aho guhatirwa kubyemera ku mbaraga.
Ariko icyo cyizere gishobora kutazaramba. Ndetse n’ubuyobozi bwo hejuru muri Iran bwatangiye gufata iyo MoU nk’igomba kugenzurwa neza, aho yemerewe gusa ku rwego rw’akanama k’umutekano w’igihugu.
Ibibazo bikomeye byasubitswe, harimo ahazaza ha gahunda ya uranium itunganyije cyane, urwego rwo gutunganya nikleyeri, n’iyubakwa ry’ibigo byangiritse, byose bikazaganirwaho mu minsi iri imbere mu gihe igitutu cyiyongera.
Mu gihugu imbere muri Iran, hari igitutu gikomeye. Ibitangazamakuru bya leta, bamwe mu bayobozi ba gisirikare n’abadepite bamaze igihe bavuga ko Iran yatsinze. Ibi bituma ubutegetsi bugomba kugaragaza ko butagiye kwigomwa byinshi, kuko ibyo byafatwa nk’ugusubira inyuma.
Niba Iran yemeye kugabanya gahunda ya yo ya nikleyeri, bishobora gufatwa n’abanenga nk’ugutsindwa kwihishe inyuma y’intsinzi yari yatangajwe. Niba kandi yanze, amasezerano ashobora gusenyuka, intambara igasubukurwa.
Abayobozi bamwe bo muri Iran bakomeje kugerageza kugaragaza imvugo ikomeye, bavuga ko baganira ariko badacika intege, mu gihe bagerageza kwirinda kugaragara nk’abatsinzwe cyangwa abaretse.
Ku mpande zombi, aya masezerano asa n’icyiciro cy’agahenge aho buri ruhande rushaka kwigaragaza nk’urwatsinze, mu gihe mu by’ukuri ibiganiro bikomeye cyane ari byo bitangiye.
Nubwo Iran yabashije gusohoka mu ntambara itarasenyuka kandi ikabona agahenge, ikibazo gikomeye kiri imbere ni ukugira ngo igumane isura y’intsinzi mu gihe ishobora kuzisanga igomba guhitamo hagati yo kwigomwa cyangwa kongera guhura n’intambara.
Ibitekerezo