Ubushakashatsi bushya bwagaragaje ko imihindagurikire y’ikirere ishobora kuba yaragize uruhare mu nkangu y’amabuye n’urubura byateje imyuzure yangije bikomeye ku mupaka wa Nepal na Tibet.
Dr. Friederike Otto, impuguke mu bumenyi bw’ikirere mu kigo cya Imperial College London akaba n’umwe mu banditse ubwo bushakashatsi, yavuze ko “nta gushidikanya na gato ko imihindagurikire y’ikirere yatewe n’ibikorwa bya muntu yagize uruhare mu gutuma ako gace kibasirwa n’ibiza”.
Ubushakashatsi bwakozwe na World Weather Attribution bwagaragaje ko icyo kiza cyatewe n’uruhererekane rw’impamvu zirimo ubushyuhe bukabije, kugabanuka kw’ibibarafu, gushonga k’ubutaka bwari bumaze igihe bwarakonje ndetse n’intege nke zari zisanzwe mu miterere y’ibitare by’ako gace.
Ibyavuye muri ubwo bushakashatsi byatangajwe mu gihe ubuyobozi bwa Nepal bwavuguruye imibare y’ababuriwe irengero, bava ku 5,179 baera ku 6,150. Abamaze kwemezwa ko bapfuye bo baracyari hafi 1,400.
Imyuzure n’inkangu bikomeye byibasiye imijyi n’imidugudu yo ku mupaka wa Nepal na Tibet, bisenya amazu abarirwa mu bihumbi n’ibikorwaremezo bitanga ingufu. Abantu benshi barapfuye, abandi baburirwa irengero.
Abahanga bavuga ko iyo myuzure yatangiye nyuma yo gusenyuka kw’igice kinini cy’ibitare n’urubura hafi y’impinga ya Langtang Lirung, umusozi wo mu ruhererekane rwa Himalaya uri ku ruhande rwa Nepal.
Ibyo bitare n’urubura byaguye mu kibaya bifite imbaraga nyinshi, ku buryo ibipimo by’Ikigo cy’Amerika gishinzwe iby’ubutaka, USGS, byagaragaje umutingito ufite ubukana bwa 5.2.
Ubushakashatsi bwasohotse kuri uyu wa Kane tariki ya 17 Nzeri 2026, bwavuze ko imihindagurikire y’ibihe yatumye ubutaka burushaho gutakaza ubudahangarwa, ariko ko atari yo yonyine yateje icyo kiza.
Bugaragaza ko ubushyuhe bwo muri Nyakanga na Kanama muri ako gace bwiyongereyeho dogere Celsius 1.5 bitewe n’ibikorwa bya muntu bihindura ikirere. Ibibarafu byo muri ako gace na byo byagabanukaga ku kigero cya santimetero hafi 50 buri mwaka, bigatuma ibice by’ibitare byari bisanzwe byarasadutse birushaho gucika intege.
Urubura rwinshi rwaguye mu Ukwakira no mu Ugushyingo na rwo rwatumye haboneka amazi menshi yaturutse ku rubura rwashonze mu ntangiriro z’uyu mwaka. Abashakashatsi bavuga ko ibyo byose bishobora kuba byarahuye, bigatuma ubukana bw’icyo kiza bwiyongera.
Umutingito wari ufite ubukana bwa 7.8 wibasiye ako gace mu 2015, ugateza isenyuka ry’ibitare n’urubura, na wo ushobora kuba waracogoje ibitare by’umusozi. Icyakora, abategetsi bavuga ko bataramenya neza uruhare uwo mutingito wagize ku biza biheruka.
Dr Walter Immerzeel, impuguke mu by’amazi yo mu misozi muri Kaminuza ya Utrecht, yavuze ko ahabereye icyo kiza hari umusozi usanzwe ufite imiterere y’ubutaka bworoshye gusenyuka. Yavuze ko ushobora kuba waracogojwe n’umutingito wo mu 2015, ugakomeza gutakaza imbaraga kubera igabanuka ry’ibibarafu no gushonga k’ubutaka bwari bwarakonje.
Ubu bushakashatsi ntiburagenzurwa n’izindi mpuguke ngo busohorwe mu kinyamakuru cy’ubumenyi. World Weather Attribution ariko ivuga ko inyigo za yo zose zikoresha uburyo bwemewe n’abahanga mu gusuzuma ibiza bikomoka ku mihindagurikire y’ikirere.
Dr Simon Cook, impuguke mu by’ibibarafu muri Kaminuza ya Dundee, yavuze ko ubushakashatsi butanga ibimenyetso bikomeye by’uko imihindagurikire y’ikirere yagize uruhare rukomeye. Yongeyeho ariko ko hakiri byinshi bigomba kwigwa kugira ngo hamenyekane neza uko icyo kiza cyabaye n’uburyo uturere two mu misozi miremire twakurikiranwa, hakaboneka imiburo hakiri kare.
Nyuma y’ibi biza, ubuyobozi bwa Nepal bwasabye ibihugu gushyira hamwe mu kurwanya imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Buvuga ko Nepal iri mu bihugu bisohora imyuka ihumanya ikirere ku rugero ruto, ariko ikaba mu byugarijwe cyane n’ingaruka z’ubushyuhe bukabije ku Isi.
Minisitiri w’Intebe wa Nepal, Balendra Shah, ateganyijwe kwitabira Inteko Rusange y’Umuryango w’Abibumbye i New York, aho azavuga kuri ibyo biza no ku butabera mu kurwanya imihindagurikire y’ikirere.
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