Umutwe w’ingabo zidasanzwe za Iran, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), watangaje ko kuri uyu wa Kane, tariki ya 30 Nyakanga 2026, uri bwihimure ku wo wise “umugizi wa nabi”, unihanangiriza ibihugu byose bifasha Amerika mu bitero igaba kuri Iran ko bishobora guhura n’ingaruka zikomeye nibidakura amaboko muri ibyo bikorwa.
Iri tangazo rije mu gihe umwuka ukomeje kuba mubi mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, nyuma y’uko Leta Zunze Ubumwe Z’Amerika zongeye kugaba ibitero ku birindiro n’ibikorwa remezo bya gisirikare bya Iran. Tehran ivuga ko ibyo bitero ari ubushotoranyi n’ikorwa ry’ubushake bugamije kuyihungabanya, mu gihe Washington yo ivuga ko ari uburyo bwo kwirwanaho no gukumira ibitero bya Iran ku ngabo za yo no ku nyungu za yo mu karere.
Mu itangazo ryasohowe n’ibiro ntaramakuru Tasnim byo muri Iran, IRGC yavuze ko ibihugu bikomeje gufasha uwo yise “umugizi wa nabi” bizahabwa igisubizo gikomeye, keretse mu gihe byaba bihinduye imyitwarire ya byo.
Yagize iti: “Ibihugu bifite uruhare mu gufasha umugizi wa nabi bizahabwa igisubizo gikomeye nibidakosora imyitwarire ya byo.”
Nubwo IRGC itahise isobanura neza igikorwa cya gisirikare iteganya gukora, aho kizabera cyangwa ibikoresho izakoresha, amagambo ya yo yerekana ko Iran ishobora gusubiza ibitero Amerika iheruka kugaba ku birindiro bya yo bya gisirikare.
IRGC yakomeje igira iti: “Umuhora wa Hormuz ni ubutaka bwacu, kandi abagabo b’intwari bo mu ngabo zirwanira mu mazi za IRGC barawugenzura mu buryo bukomeye. Nta munyamahanga uturutse mu birometero ibihumbi byinshi uzemererwa kuza kubyivangamo. Imana nibishaka, umugizi wa nabi arahanwa uyu munsi.”
Aya magambo akomeye yazamuye impungenge ko imirwano ishobora kongera gufata intera, cyane cyane mu Nyanja ya Oman, mu Kigobe cya Perise no mu bihugu bikikije umuhora wa Hormuz. Ni agace k’ingenzi cyane ku bucuruzi mpuzamahanga, kuko ari ko kanyuramo igice kinini cya peteroli na gaze bijyanwa ku masoko yo hirya no hino ku Isi.
IRGC yavuze ko umuhora wa Hormuz utazafungurwa igihe cyose abayobozi b’Amerika bazakomeza gutera ubwoba Iran, kuyivugaho amagambo y’ubushotoranyi no kwivanga mu migendekere y’amato yo mu karere.
Yagize iti: “Iterabwoba no kwivanga mu bikorwa byo mu karere bizatuma ibintu birushaho gukomera no kugorana.”
Ni ubutumwa bwerekana ko Iran ikomeje gukoresha umuhora wa Hormuz nk’intwaro ya dipolomasi n’igitutu cya gisirikare. Tehran izi neza ko ihungabana ry’uruhererekane rw’ubucuruzi runyura muri ako gace rigira ingaruka ku bihugu byinshi, harimo n’ibifitanye umubano ukomeye n’Amerika.
IRGC ishinja Washington gushaka kwigarurira ububasha bwo kugenzura inyanja zo mu karere kandi iri ku birometero ibihumbi byinshi uvuye ku butaka bw’Amerika. Iran yo ivuga ko nk’igihugu gikora ku Nyanja ya Hormuz, ifite inshingano zo kurinda umutekano wa yo no kugenzura ibikorwa ibona ko bishobora kuyiteza akaga.
Amategeko mpuzamahanga, ku rundi ruhande, afata Hormuz nk’inzira ikoreshwa n’amato mpuzamahanga, bityo ibihugu biyegereye bikaba byitezweho kutabangamira uburenganzira bw’amato bwo kuyinyuramo. Umunyamabanga Mukuru w’Umuryango w’Abibumbye n’ibihugu byinshi byagiye bisaba ko ubwisanzure bw’amato busubizwa muri ako gace, hirindwa ko amakimbirane ya gisirikare ahungabanya ubucuruzi bw’Isi. Umuryango w’Abibumbye wavuze ko ubwisanzure bw’Amato muri Hormuz bugomba kugarurwa.
Amerika yagabye ibitero ku birindiro bya IRGC
Iri tangazo rya Iran ryasohotse nyuma y’igikorwa cya gisirikare cyamaze amasaha abiri cyagabwe n’ingabo z’Amerika ku birindiro byinshi bya IRGC.
Ubuyobozi bukuru bw’ingabo z’Amerika zikorera mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, CENTCOM, bwatangaje ko ibyo bitero byibasiye ibigo biyobora ibikorwa bya gisirikare, ahabikwa cyangwa hagurutswa indege zitagira abapilote n’ibindi bikorwa remezo bifitanye isano na IRGC.
Amerika yavuze ko ibyo bitero byari igisubizo ku bitero bya misile za Iran byari bigambiriye ingabo za yo ziri muri Jordanie. Washington ishinja kandi Iran n’imitwe iyishyigikiye guteza umutekano muke mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, kugaba ibitero ku ngabo z’Abanyamerika no gushyira mu kaga amato y’ubucuruzi.
CENTCOM yatangaje ko intego y’ibitero yari uguca intege ubushobozi bwa Iran bwo kugaba ibindi bitero, atari ukwibasira abaturage. Iran yo yatangaje ko hari abaturage baguye mu bitero byibasiye ikirwa cya Qeshm, kirimo ibirindiro n’ibikorwa remezo bya gisirikare ariko kikaba kinatuwe n’abasivili.
Ibiro ntaramakuru bya Iran byatangaje ko umugabo, umugore n’umwana wa bo w’imyaka ibiri bari mu baguye muri ibyo bitero. Aya makuru ku mibare y’abasivili bishwe ntiyahise yemezwa n’uruhande rwigenga.
Ku wa 29 Nyakanga 2026, CENTCOM yari yatangaje ko ingabo z’Amerika zagabye ibitero ku nyubako za IRGC nyuma y’ibyo yise ibitero bya Iran byageragejwe. Urutonde rw’ibikorwa rwatangajwe na CENTCOM rugaragaza ko Amerika imaze kugaba ibitero byinshi kuri Iran muri Nyakanga 2026. CENTCOM yashyize ahagaragara amakuru y’ibitero ku bigo bya IRGC.
Amato yahuye n’ibibazo
IRGC yanatangaje ko amato abiri atwara peteroli yagerageje kunyura mu nzira yo mu majyepfo ya Hormuz mu ijoro ryo ku wa Gatatu rishyira kuri uyu wa Kane, ariko ayo mato aza guhagarika urugendo nyuma y’uko bumwe muri bwo bwafashwe n’inkongi y’umuriro.
Ntabwo hahise hatangazwa icyateje uwo muriro cyangwa niba hari igitero cyagabwe kuri ayo mato. Iran yavuze ko ibyo byerekana ko inzira amato yagerageje gukoresha idatekanye. Amakuru yerekeye guhagarika urugendo kwa yo yatangajwe na IRGC, bityo impamvu nyakuri y’umuriro ikaba ikeneye gukomeza kugenzurwa.
Nubwo Iran ivuga ko Hormuz ifunze, ku wa Kane hari ubwato bwa mbere butwara gaze yabikijwe yabaye amazi, LNG, bwagenzuwe na QatarEnergy bwashoboye gusohoka muri ako gace nyuma y’ibyumweru hafi bitatu nta bwato nk’ubwo buhanyura.
Ubwo bwato bwitwa Al Areesh bwari buhetse gaze yakuwe ku cyambu cya Ras Laffan muri Qatar, bukaba bwarerekezaga ku cyambu cya Port Qasim muri Pakistan. Amakuru yatangajwe n’ibiro ntaramakuru Fars bya Iran yavuze ko bwanyuze mu nzira yemewe na Iran.
Kuba ubwo bwato bwemerewe kuhanyura bishobora kugaragaza ko Hormuz itafunze burundu ku mato yose, ahubwo ko Iran ishaka kugenzura ubwato bwemererwa kuyinyuramo n’inzira bukoresha. Ibyo bishobora guteza impaka nshya, kuko ibihugu byo mu karere n’ibindi bikoresha iyo nzira bitakwemera ko Iran yonyine igena uburyo ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga buyinyuramo.
Impamvu Hormuz ikomeye ku bukungu bw’Isi
Inzira ya Hormuz iri hagati ya Iran na Oman, ihuza Ikigobe cya Perise, Ikigobe cya Oman n’Inyanja y’Abahinde. Nubwo ari ntoya ugereranyije n’ubunini bw’inyanja iyikikije, ni imwe mu nzira zifite agaciro gakomeye ku bukungu bw’Isi.
Imibare y’Ikigo cy’Amerika gishinzwe amakuru ajyanye n’ingufu, EIA, igaragaza ko mu 2024 peteroli yanyuraga muri Hormuz yageraga kuri miliyoni 20 z’utugunguru ku munsi. Ibyo byanganaga na 20% bya peteroli n’ibiyikomokaho byakoreshwaga ku Isi. EIA igaragaza ko Hormuz ari imwe mu nzira zikomeye za peteroli ku Isi.
Ibihugu nka Arabie Saoudite, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar na Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Abarabu bishingira cyane kuri iyi nzira mu kugeza peteroli na gaze ku masoko mpuzamahanga. Igice kinini cy’ibinyuzwa muri Hormuz kijya muri Aziya, cyane cyane mu Bushinwa, mu Buhinde, mu Buyapani no muri Koreya y’Epfo.
Mu 2024, hafi 83% bya gaze ya LNG yanyuze muri Hormuz yari yerekeje ku masoko yo muri Aziya. Ubushinwa, Ubuhinde na Koreya y’Epfo byonyine byakiriye 52% bya LNG yose yahanyuze. Imibare ya EIA ku bucuruzi bwa LNG bunyura muri Hormuz.
Iyo amato adashoboye kunyura muri ako gace, ibiciro bya peteroli na gaze birazamuka, ubwishingizi bw’amato bugahenda, ingendo zigatinda ndetse n’ibihugu bishingira ku gutumiza ingufu bikagira impungenge zo kubura ibihagije.
Ingaruka ntizigarukira ku bihugu bitumiza peteroli gusa. Izamuka ry’ibiciro bya yo rituma ubwikorezi buhenda, ibiciro by’ibiribwa bikazamuka kandi ibikorwa by’inganda bikongera amafaranga bikoresha. Ndetse n’ibihugu by’Afurika bidatumiza peteroli mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati mu buryo butaziguye bishobora guhura n’ingaruka z’izamuka ry’ibiciro ku isoko mpuzamahanga.
Imishyikirano ya Oman iri mu bibazo
Oman, igihugu gihana imbibi na Hormuz, yakomeje kugerageza kuba umuhuza hagati ya Iran, Amerika n’ibindi bihugu bifite inyungu muri ako karere.
Mu mpera za Nyakanga, Iran yashyikirije Oman umushinga w’agateganyo wo kongera gufungura iyi nzira. Tehran yasabye ko amato yinjira muri Hormuz n’igice cy’ayisohokamo anyura mu mazi igenzura.
Oman yari yasabye ko inzira zigabanywa mu buryo bungana hagati y’amazi ya yo n’aya Iran. Tehran yanze icyo cyifuzo, ivuga ko ikeneye kugenzura igice kinini cy’inzira kugira ngo ibungabunge umutekano wa yo.
Iran yanavuze ko itazemera ko igihugu cya gatatu cyinjira muri Hormuz gukuramo ibisasu bishobora kuba byarashyizwe mu mazi, kabone n’iyo cyaba gitumiwe na Oman. Ibi bituma kugera ku masezerano yihuse birushaho kugorana. Iran yasabye ububasha bwisumbuyeho mu mugambi w’agateganyo wo gufungura Hormuz.
Kongera gufungura Hormuz mu buryo burambye bizasaba ko Iran ibona icyizere cy’uko Amerika itazakoresha iyo nzira mu bikorwa byo kuyigabaho ibitero. Amerika n’abafatanyabikorwa ba yo na bo bashaka ko amato y’ubucuruzi ahabwa uburenganzira bwo kuhanyura nta kubanza kugenzurwa cyangwa kwemererwa na IRGC.
Iterabwoba rya IRGC rireba cyane ibihugu bicumbikiye ingabo z’Amerika cyangwa byemereye indege n’amato bya yo gukoresha ibirindiro biri ku butaka bwa byo.
Amerika ifite ingabo n’ibikorwa remezo bya gisirikare muri Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Abarabu, Arabie Saoudite, Iraq na Jordanie. Iran ikunze kuburira ibyo bihugu ko kwemera ko ubutaka bwa byo bukoreshwa mu kuyigabaho ibitero bishobora gutuma na byo bifatwa nk’abagize uruhare mu ntambara.
Ku ruhande rumwe, ibyo bihugu bishingira ku bufatanye n’Amerika mu bijyanye n’umutekano. Ku rundi ruhande, byinshi muri byo ntibyifuza kwinjira mu ntambara yeruye na Iran, kubera ko biri hafi y’ubutaka bwayo kandi ibikorwa remezo bya byo bya peteroli na gaze bishobora kwibasirwa mu buryo bworoshye.
Ni yo mpamvu amagambo ya IRGC ashobora gutuma ibyo bihugu birushaho gusaba ko ikibazo gikemurwa binyuze mu biganiro. Gusa kuba Amerika ikomeza kugaba ibitero, Iran na yo ikarahira kwihimura, bituma icyizere cyo gusubira mu mishyikirano kigabanuka.
Mu gihe Iran itaratangaza mu buryo burambuye igikorwa yasezeranyije gukora kuri uyu wa Kane, ingabo zo mu karere, amato y’ubucuruzi n’ibihugu bicumbikiye ibirindiro by’Amerika bikomeje kuba maso. Igikorwa icyo ari cyo cyose cya gisirikare muri Hormuz cyangwa ku birindiro by’Abanyamerika gishobora gutuma Amerika yongera kwihimura, maze intambara ikarushaho gukwira mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati.
Icyemezo cya Tehran cyo gukomeza gufunga Inzira ya Hormuz na cyo gikomeza gushyira igitutu ku masoko y’ingufu no ku bucuruzi mpuzamahanga. Ubu amaso ahanzwe ku cyemezo IRGC ishobora gufata no ku gisubizo cy’Amerika, kuko ikosa rito cyangwa igitero kidateguwe neza bishobora gutuma amakimbirane ahinduka intambara nini igira ingaruka ku bihugu byo mu karere no ku bukungu bw’Isi yose.
Ibitekerezo