John Simpson: “Natangaje inkuru ku ntambara 40, ariko sinigeze mbona umwaka umeze nka 2025”

Maze imyaka irenga 60 ndi mu mwuga w’itangazamakuru, natangaje inkuru ku ntambara zirenga 40 hirya no hino ku isi.

Natangiye aka kazi mu myaka ya 1960, mbona Intambara y’Ubutita igera ku ntera ya yo yo hejuru, hanyuma iza gusenyuka nk’aho ishize burundu. Ariko sinigeze mbona umwaka uteye ubwoba nka 2025. Si ukubera gusa ko hari intambara nyinshi zikomeye zirimo kuba, ahubwo ni uko bigenda bigaragara ko imwe muri zo ifite ingaruka zikomeye cyane ku mutekano n’imibanire y’ibihugu ku rwego mpuzamahanga, ku buryo butigeze bubaho mbere.

Perezida wa Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, yatanze umuburo ko intambara iri mu gihugu cye ishobora kwaguka ikavamo intambara y’isi yose. Nyuma y’imyaka hafi 60 nkurikirana intambara zitandukanye, mfite impungenge zikomeye ko ashobora kuba ari kuvuga ukuri.

Ibihugu bigize Umuryango wa OTAN (NATO) biri maso cyane ku kimenyetso cyose cyagaragaza ko Uburusiya buri guca insinga zo mu nyanja zitwara amakuru y’ikoranabuhanga akomeye akomeza gutuma sosiyete zo mu burengerazuba zikora.

Indege nto zitagira abapilote z’Uburusiya zishinjwa kugerageza uko ubwirinzi bw’ibihugu bya NATO buhagaze, mu gihe abantu ba bo bafite ubumenyi bwo hejuru mu by’ikoranabuhanga mu kwinjirira sisitemu y’imikorere y’abandi, bakora uburyo bwo guhagarika imikorere ya za minisiteri, serivisi z’ubutabazi n’ibigo bikomeye by’ubucuruzi.

Abategetsi bo mu burengerazuba bemeza badashidikanya ko inzego z’ibanga z’Uburusiya zica cyangwa zigerageza kwica abatavuga rumwe n’ubutegetsi bwa bwo bahungiye mu burengerazuba.

Iperereza ku igeragezwa ryo kwica Sergei Skripal wahoze ari intasi y’Uburusiya, ryabereye i Salisbury mu Bwongereza mu 2018 (harimo n’urupfu rwa Dawn Sturgess wanyoye uburozi ku bw’impanuka), ryagaragaje ko icyo gitero cyari cyemejwe ku rwego rwo hejuru cyane mu Burusiya. Ibyo bivuze Perezida Vladimir Putin ubwe.

Umwaka wa 2025 waranzwe n’intambara eshatu zitandukanye cyane. Hari intambara yo muri Ukraine, aho Loni ivuga ko abasivili bagera ku 14,000 bamaze kuyigwamo. Hari n’intambara yo muri Gaza, aho Minisitiri w’Intebe wa Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, yasezeranyije “kwihorera bikomeye” nyuma y’uko abarwanyi ba Hamas bishe abantu bagera ku 1,200 ku wa 7 Ukwakira 2023, abandi 251 bagafatwa bugwate.

Kuva icyo gihe, Abanyapalestina barenga 70,000 bamaze kwicwa n’ibikorwa bya gisirikare bya Israel, barimo abagore n’abana barenga 30,000, nk’uko bitangazwa na Minisiteri y’Ubuzima ya Gaza iyobowe na Hamas. Loni ivuga ko iyo mibare yizewe.

Hagati aho, muri Sudani habaye intambara ikaze y’imbere mu gihugu hagati y’imitwe ibiri ya gisirikare. Mu myaka ibiri ishize, abantu barenga 150,000 barishwe, naho abagera kuri miliyoni 12 bava mu bya bo.

Birashoboka ko iyo iyo ntambara yo muri Sudani iba ari yo yonyine yabaye mu 2025, amahanga yari kuyitaho cyane agashaka kuyihagarika. Ariko ntiyari yo yonyine.

Perezida wa Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Amerika, Donald Trump, yagize ati: “Nzi guhagarika intambara,” ubwo indege ye yajyaga muri Israel nyuma yo kuganira ku masezerano yo guhagarika imirwano muri Gaza. Ni byo koko, ubu abantu bake barapfa muri Gaza, ariko n’ubwo hari agahenge, iyo ntambara ntigaragara nk’iyahagaze.

Nubwo ububabare buri mu burasirazuba bwo hagati bukabije, intambara yo muri Ukraine iri ku rundi rwego rwihariye. Usibye Intambara y’Ubutita, intambara nyinshi nigeze gukurikirana zari nto ugereranyije, nubwo zatezaga akaga, ariko ntizigeze zishyira mu kaga amahoro y’isi yose.

Mu 2026, Uburusiya busa n’ubwiteguye kongera gusunika ubutegetsi bwa bwo, cyane cyane bubona Amerika isa n’itakitaye ku Burayi. Nubwo Putin avuga ko adateganya gutera Uburayi, ibikorwa bya bwo biragaragaza ikinyuranyo.

Uburusiya bwateye igihugu cyigenga cyo mu Burayi, butuma hapfa abasivili n’abasirikare benshi. Ukraine ibushinja gushimuta abana barenga 20,000. Urukiko Mpuzamahanga Mpanabyaha (ICC) rwatanze impapuro zo guta muri yombi Perezida Putin kubera ibyo byaha, nubwo Uburusiya bubihakana.

Amerika y’uyu munsi na yo aratandukanye: isa n’iyibereyeho, itakigira uruhare rukomeye nk’uko byari bisanzwe. Ibi byose Putin arabibona kandi abibyaza umusaruro.

Mu myaka iri imbere, cyane cyane mu 2026, isi ishobora kwinjira mu gihe gikomeye cyane. Intambara yo muri Ukraine ishobora guhagarara, ariko ku nyungu z’Uburusiya. Ubushinwa na bwo bushobora gukaza igitutu kuri Taiwan. Ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburengerazuba bushobora gusenyuka.

Niba watekerezaga ko Intambara ya Gatatu y’Isi izaba ikozwe n’intwaro za kirimbuzi gusa, ushobora kwibeshya. Ishobora kuba uruhererekane rw’intambara z’igisirikare, dipolomasi n’igitugu, bigatuma demokarasi isubira inyuma. Kandi icyo gikorwa cyaratangiye.